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Analyzing China for the U.S. Government-- Lessons and Losses Related to Technology

Over the last 30 years, analyzing activity in China has gone from a few key placements in the region with microwave and satellite imagery to the addition of rising volumes of tracked email, websites, and increasing known military and business activity in the region. Even with China's World Trade Organization (WTO) entrance imminent, the endless analysis will continue to be pivotal in policy-making. Trade, human rights, and the Chinese weakening economy may be highlights in upcoming decisions based on electronic information exchange. The body of open source, Internet-available information, both in Chinese and English, is so vast now that it is more of a bane, than a blessing in making policy decisions that lead to tactical steps, according to experts in Asian relations. "Piles and piles of printed data on my desk from the Internet and elsewhere, does not equal wisdom. We've done more dumb things in the last seven years related to China, even though we've had access to growing sources of information," said James R. Lilley, now a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) for Public Policy Research in December. He cited, as an example, China's bombed embassy in Yugoslavia by NATO warplanes. The United States has already agreed to pay $4.5 million to the families of the three Chinese killed and 27 injured. Lilley believes that local politics, more than historical data have played more of a role in decisions, in part because of the increases in sources and methods. Lilley was born an American citizen in China 71 years ago, and has served in various military roles related to Asian policy most of his career, including U.S. Ambassador to the People's Republic of China (1989-1991), and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Affairs (1991-1993). Organizations like AEI, The Heritage Foundation, a non-profit conservative policy think tank, coupled with military intelligence analysts, and research at institutions like the U.S. Army War College will continue to crank up the volume on using data management, rather than just more data mining exercises.

"Freight cars of information come from NSA, for example, but it can't all be processed and analyzed," said Lilley. "In the past (70s), use of high frequency microwave devices gave us accurate advanced notice on nuclear blasts, rocket shots, and the like. Now, we have the advent of fiber optics, in the region. Operationally we have to keep changing to be efficient." He said that high-resolution, overhead photography is still highly effective and used. In addition, human contact in the private sector can lend perspective--less than 500 U.S. businessmen were in China; now that number is closer to 20,000. There really hasn't been a change in the number of official military personnel in China since 1989, according to the Pentagon.

And, officials at the various federal agencies have varying views on the success of technology in helping this never-ending process of distilling policy from intelligence gleaned from electronic documentation, and other sources. There are as many as 100 intelligence analysts devoted full-time to study of the PLA in the Department of Defense, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, National Reconnaissance Office, U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) and other offices. A high-ranking Pentagon official involved in Asian-Pacific initiatives said, "Generally technologists involved in this data collection process tend to be more alarmist and look at long-term trends, but it is the political scientists who really don't rely on tools and technology who are setting policy. Planners involved in long-term assessment may align with technology-based research. Actually the best research is available through open sources on the Internet, if you can read Chinese." Some agencies reportedly do not use Chinese sources at all, such as DIA, according to the Pentagon official. One of the best resources of this Chinese data links is kept by James Mulvenon of the Rand Corp. One of his most recent 1999 policy papers of interest is, "The People's Liberation Army in the Information Age." (Go to www.rand.org/publications)

Indeed, there is evidence that this data-mining process with all its sophisticated toolsets could eventually be used against federal agencies and American business, as much as for them. A December 1999 policy paper released by The Heritage Foundation indicates: "Authoritative articles in the People's Liberation Army official newspaper call for the establishment of a new service to carry out electronic and information attacks against enemy forces and on an enemy's homeland. (Jiefangjun Bao, Nov. 11, 1999, p. 7. See also Zhu Youwen, Gao Jishu Tiaojian xia Xinxi Zhan [Information Warfare Under High Technology Conditions] (Beijing: Military Science Press, 1998) Larry M Wortzel, the paper's author at the Heritage Foundation, continues, "The PLA appears to have chosen the U.S. military as the model against which it will train its forces to fight." (Go to www.heritage.org for the complete text of the article entitled, "Why Caution is Needed in Military Contacts with China.") Mulvenon of the Rand Corp. summarizes in his recent policy paper, "...the available evidence suggests that the PLA does not currently have a coherent IW doctrine, certainly nothing compared to U.S. doctrinal writings on the subject. While PLA IW capabilities are growing, they do not match even the primitive sophistication of their underlying strategies, which call for stealth weapons, joint operations, battlefield transparency, long-range precision strike, and real-time intelligence." (Go to the paper entitled "The People's Liberation Army in the Information Age" at www.rand.org/publications)

Stephen Yates, a senior policy analyst in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation, issued an executive memorandum on Dec. 9, 1999 that states the U.S.-China agreement to the terms of China's entry to WTO should benefit U.S. commercial interests by implementing the Trade Related Investment Measures (TRIMs) Agreement. He writes, "Full implementation of the TRIMs Agreement will protect firms from forced technology transfers, local content requirements, and foreign exchange restrictions. Especially in the area of dual-use technology, this agreement should help improve protection of sensitive U.S. military technology and valuable intellectual property." (Go to heritage.org, policy paper: "U.S. to China: Join the WTO, But Real Work Lies Ahead")

Larry Wortzel, also of The Heritage Foundation, expresses the view that in our military-to-military contacts with China we have already been too open with technology assistance that may backlash. He writes, "The release of U.S. war-gaming or combat simulation computer software to the PLA should cease. Such systems that were provided in the 1980s are in use today, training regimental and division leaders to fight more effectively against Taiwan."

Wortzel, the former Director of Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, believes that most U.S. intelligence acquisition on China will come from the Internet. "This also means the ability to integrate cultures of societies has been increased," he said. At that, he feels, will strengthen U.S.-China relations in all areas.